Toronto Market Update for September 2019

22 October 2019
Life and the City


Similar to August, September’s headline statistic was another significant increase in year-over-year sales volume. In fact, last month saw the highest year-over-year appreciation number in all of 2019 so far! And there are a number of other key takeaways...

Sales were up an impressive 22%, primarily due to a very slow September 2018 but longer term results were also positive with sales up 1.5% vs. the 5-year average for September, and 7.1% vs. the 10-year average for September.

Generally speaking, we are seeing the largest year-over-year sales increase in the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) zones most negatively impacted during and after the April 2017 to August 2017 market correction (primarily central/east 905 zones with some outer 416 zones). In these areas, inventory levels continued to rise, and prices continued to fall until earlier this year. Buyers have recently rediscovered these zones given their perceived value, and while there is still significant inventory, these zones have turned the corner and are potentially drawing buyers away from the core 416:

  • York Region, for example, saw September 2019 sales increase by 31% year-over-year for all property types, and 43% year-over-year for detached properties. Detached active listings as at the end of September was 21% above the 5-year average - however, it is declining quickly.
  • Another example is the outer 416 regions -- C6, C7, C14, C15. Detached sales in these zones were up 57% vs. September 2018. The number of detached active listings as at the end of September in these zones were 27% above the 5-year average, and is also declining quickly.

Lastly, Toronto East deserves a closer look given its strong results. Overall, sales in the “E” zones were up 37% year-over-year, and detached sales were up 49% year-over-year (352 detached sales in Sept ’19 vs. 236 in Sept ’18). While E1, E2, E4, and E9 are booming across multiple metrics, all other “E” zones also turned in higher than average sales growth with the exception of E8. While E8 continues to perform well, there has been a noticeable increase in active listings and months of inventory and is a territory to watch.

 

Summary of the significant real estate milestones for Toronto and the GTA in September 2019:

  • September sales up 22% compared to last year (7,825)
  • The ratio of sales-to-listings dropped very slightly to 45.4% in September
  • The average sale price came in at $843,115 – up a positive 5.8% compared to last year
  • Note that this overall market average is almost 9% higher than the average 2 years ago in September 2017
  • The GTA real estate market overall averaged the days-on-market at 23
  • Detached home sales in September 2019 with a purchase price over $2,000,000 were up 32% (218 houses) while condo apartment sales over $2M were up 14% (16 suites)
  • The CONDO share of the market was steady at 34% during the month
  • Downtown condo active listing numbers were up 8.6% in C01 and increased in C08 by 13% from last year at this time
  • September condo sales were down 7% in C01 and up in C08 by 19% compared to 2018
  • The downtown condo days-on-market average was 18-22 days – 1-5 days faster than the overall market
  • The ratio of sales-to-listings for condos downtown was somewhat matched in C01 (52.8%) and in C08 (68.3%) but both were still much higher than in the overall market (45.4%)
  • Building on this higher demand due to better affordability, condo appreciation in the two main downtown markets averaged 4.3% to 5.3% year-over-year… consistent with what we’ve been seeing all this year
  • Sales numbers have now increased in many 905 neighbourhoods although appreciation percentages are lower across the board in the 905
  • September usually means the start of the fall market where more condos and houses are listed and sales increase from the summer months although that didn’t happen this year. This trend may follow through for the rest of the fall market, through to the end of November

View TREB's Market Watch for September 2019


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