Toronto Market Update for November 2018

12 December 2018
Life and the City

   

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Toronto largely remains a seller’s market as home sales fell nearly 14% in November, compared with a year ago, as sale prices continued to see moderate growth. This year-over-year decrease is likely the result of a temporary upward shift in demand that we experienced in November 2017, just before the new stress-test rules for federally regulated lenders came into effect in January of this year.

Last month in November, Toronto condo prices rose 7% year-over-year, with the average price coming in at $595,678. In the rest of the GTA, the average condo price was $454,288.

Townhouse prices dropped 2.9% in November, with the average price for a Toronto townhouse jumping to $739,837 and the average price elsewhere in the GTA at $613,846.

Detached homes saw only moderate price growth, up 1.8% last month compared with a year ago. A detached property in Toronto on average sold for $1.3 million in November, while in the rest of the GTA, the average price for a detached home last month was $903,517.

Given the impact of the mortgage stress test and higher borrowing costs on affordability, the condo apartment and semi-detached market segments experienced relatively stronger rates of price growth in November, as market conditions in these segments remained tight or tightened respectively over the past year.


Summary of significant real estate milestones for Toronto and surrounding regions in November 2018


  • Lowest number of November sales since 2012 (6,251)
  • The ratio of sales-to-listings was stable at 38.1% in November – This indicates a moderate seller market
  • The average sale price came in at $788,345– which was up just 3.5% compared to November 2017 – Those mortgage ‘stress-test’ financing rules from this past January have seriously affected our market
  • Note that this overall market average was just 1.4% higher than 2 years ago in November 2016
  • Overall sales in the month were down 14.7% from one year ago
  • The GTA real estate market overall averaged the days-on-market at 27 – a fairly typical level for Toronto’s fall market
  • Detached home sales in November 2018 with a purchase price over $2,000,000 (156) were down 12% from last year
  • It’s noticeable that first-time buyer aspirations are now shifting to a condominium lifestyle – CONDO sales took a 37.8% share of the total market
  • Downtown condo active listing numbers were lower in C01 by 9% and up in C08 by 6% from last year at this time
  • November sales were down 22% in C01 and lower by 6.4% in C08 compared to 2017
  • The downtown condo days-on-market average was 17-19 days – significantly faster than the overall market 
  • The ratio of sales-to-listings for condos downtown were close in both C01 (71%) and in C08 (77.2%) indicating an extremely strong seller’s market… just about double the GTA overall.
  • The average sale price for downtown condominium suites is up by roughly $65,000 from November 2017
  • Building on this higher demand due to better affordability, condo appreciation in the two main downtown markets averaged 11-12% year-over-year
  • Markets in York Region and other 905 neighbourhoods have suffered the most from the market slowdown – York Region is now showing that they’re in ‘buyer market’ territory
  • Expect a stable to lower inventory and sales declines as we move through the December-January holiday times - buyers should watch for more opportunities to get the condo or house of their dreams.



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