May 2018 GTA Market Update

14 June 2018
Life and the City

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The GTA real estate market continues to be influenced by the mortgage stress test requirements that were introduced at the beginning of the year, as well as by the modest increase in mortgage rates and lower sales of higher-priced luxury homes across the GTA.

The average GTA property sale price in May came in at $805,320 and there were 7,834 sales, which was down 22.2% from May of 2017. However, while the number of sales was down year-over-year, the annual rate of decline was less than reported in February, March and April, when sales were down by more than 30%. On a month-over-month basis, seasonally adjusted May sales were basically flat compared to April.

Supply of homes available for sale continued to be an issue last month. New listings were down by 26.2%. The fact that new listings were down by more than sales in comparison to last year means that competition increased between buyers. 

Market conditions are becoming tighter in theGTA, which will provide support for home prices as we move through the second half of 2018 and into 2019. There are emerging indicators pointing toward increased competition between buyers, which generally leads to stronger price growth. In the City of Toronto, for example, average selling prices were at or above average listing prices for all major home types in May. Detached home in the 416 sold for an average of $1,426,094 in May, while the GTA-wide average was $1,045,553.

Have a look at more notable stats for the GTA market in May - and what they mean - in our summary below.

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Here is a summary of significant real estate milestones and notable stats for May 2018:  

  • Lowest May sales since 2002 (7,834)
  • The ratio of sales-to-listings dropped to 37.4% in May – Now in a moderate seller's market territory
  • The average sale price came in at $805,320 – which was down by 6.6% compared to May 2017 (Remember that last year, the new Ontario government rules came into effect on April 20th which really influenced the May market last year)
  • Note that this average was still 8.9% higher than 2 years ago in May 2016
  • Overall sales in the month were down 22% from one year ago
  • The GTA real estate market overall averaged the days-on-market at 20 – a more normal level for this time of year
  • Detached home sales in May 2018 with a purchase price over $2,000,000 were down 51% from last year
  • Again, it’s becoming clear that first-time buyer aspirations are now shifting to a condominium lifestyle – condo sales took a ‘highest ever’ for May with 38.2% of the total market share for sales
  • Downtown condo active listing numbers were lower in C01 (by 17%) and up in C08 (by 6%) compared to last year at this time
  • The downtown condo days-on-market average was 12-16 days – significantly faster than the overall market 
  • The ratio of sales-to-listings for condos downtown ranged between 78% in C01 to 71% in C08 indicating an extremely strong seller’s market...double the GTA overall.
  • The average sale price for downtown condominium suites is up by roughly $75,000 from May 2017
  • Building on this higher demand due to better affordability, condo appreciation in the two main downtown markets averaged 10-13% year-over-year
  • Markets in York Region and other 905 neighbourhoods have suffered the most from the market slowdown – York Region is now showing that they’re in ‘buyer's market’ territory
  • As inventory increases through the spring, buyers should watch for more opportunities to get the condo or house of their dreams.

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Watch the video below for an analysis of the Toronto and the GTA real estate markets in May:

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Questions about the market, or want to know the current market value of your home, or what properties have been selling for recently in your neighbourhood? 

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